Page 45 - Revista del Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo del INEI - Economía, Sociedad y Estadística N° 9

Table 4: Effect of Immigration and Emigration rates Age Composition

(1) (2) (3) (4)
Percentage of population
Less than Between Between Older than
VARIABLES 18 18 and 39 40 and 64 65

-0,12*** -0,08*** 0,08*** 0,12***
Emigration Rate (0,01) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00)

Immigration Rate -0,01* 0,19*** -0,08*** -0,10***
(0,01) (0,01) (0,00) (0,00)

Constant 46,97*** 24,15*** 21,26*** 7,62***
(0,84) (0,70) (0,51) (0,51)

Department Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes

Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
Control Variables Yes Yes Yes Yes

Observations 6,348 6,348 6,348 6,348
R-squared 0,79 0,62 0,73 0,68
Robust errors in parenthesis.
*** p<0,01, ** p<0,05, * p<0,1

Thus, it is possible to observe that a higher emigration A potential problem with the interpretation of these
rate is positively correlated with the older age of the results is that, despite being controlled by a group of
district, since the higher the emigration, the higher control variables, these results could be correlated
percentages corresponding to the population groups with unobservable variables that skew the results in
of older age. some unforeseen direction. A potential solution to this
problem is to use the variations between years. That
Specifically, the increase in 1 percentage point in the is, use Differences in Differences approach. The results
emigration rate is related to an increase of 0.08 pp. in are not reported to save space, but the same results
the population between 40 and 64 years of age and at are obtained, indicating that endogeneity seems not to
0.12 pp. of the population over 65 years of age. have an important role or suggesting that endogeneity
is not constant over time.
In the opposite case, a higher immigration rate is related
to only an increase in the population group between 18 5. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY
and 39 years of age, not in children under 18 years of
age. This effect is interesting, as it indicates that migrants This study shows the potential impact of the use of
are mostly of this age range, not from younger years or census information, in general, for decision making. In
older years. Thus, an increase of 1 percentage point in other words, this is the first study that combines the
the district immigration rate is related to an increase of information of the four population censuses for which
0.19 pp. in the percentage of the population between microdata are available and it is easy to realize that this
18 and 39 years of age.

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