Page 49 - Revista del Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo del INEI - Economía, Sociedad y Estadística N° 9

it has increased it, by allowing resident households to
afford the migration of their members.

The third interest group are the districts that are “Always
Ni-Ni,” that is, they have not left their isolation during Finally, the last part of the
the analysis period. It is notable that these districts also study explores whether a
appear to be clearly concentrated in three places, the higher emigration rate is
first is the north coast of Piura and Lambayeque, the related to aging.
second is the southern highlands of Cuzco and Puno
and, finally, the Loreto jungle. The reason for this is
difficult to anticipate and might be due both to the lack
of desire to migrate, both for economic and cultural
reasons, or to the lack of access to places where they However, being a provincial capital district is related to
can migrate that are affordable, and could also be due a greater probability of emigration and immigration.
to the lack of economic growth in these places, which That is, the fact that these districts, which have also
prevents them from paying for migration. been called by the literature “intermediate cities”, make
it more likely to emigrate and also that more migrants
The next part of the study explores statistically the will arrive.
hypotheses that emerge in the construction of the
typology and to a large extent the results are consistent. Finally, the last part of the study explores whether a
Thus, a higher altitude is related to greater emigration, higher emigration rate is related to aging. This hypothesis
which is consistent with what was observed in the is verified since a higher emigration rate increases the
districts of the mountains. Likewise, it is found that proportion of the population over 40 years old, and
a larger population in 1981 is also related to greater to a greater extent those of 65 years simultaneously
immigration and less emigration, which is consistent reduces those under 40 years old and, to a greater
with the fact that urban areas attract migrants, and extent, those under 18 years old.
rural areas expel them.
Likewise, it is found that the higher immigration rate
Also, an interesting result is that the higher rural significantly increases the population between 18 and
population rate in 1981 reduces both immigration and 40 years old and, simultaneously, reduces the population
emigration. This makes sense in the case of Ni-Ni, that over 40 and 65 years old. These results are verified by
due to isolation or fewer economic resources, they analyzing only intercensal variation and by using the
are not attractive to immigration but neither can they typologies. For example, belonging to a district type
afford or access places to emigrate. “Mostly Receiver” or “New Receiver”, increases the
population between 18 and 40 years old more than any
On the other hand, there are no interesting effects on other group, and simultaneously belonging to a district
the distance to the different political centers (capitals), type “Mostly Sender” or “New Sender” increases the
nor an important effect on the average slope. However, population over 65 years old in a higher proportion
the effect of being born in one of these political centers than any other group.
is clearly seen. For example, being born in Metropolitan
Lima reduces by 10 pp. the probability of being an
emigrant and increases by 2 pp. of being an immigrant.
This effect is similar to that of being a regional capital
district, but to a lesser extent.

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